Productivity 250
250 years of Total Factor Productivity growth — from Adam Smith and the cotton gin to AI and intangible assets. Six lessons tracing how General Purpose Technologies drive productivity, how each era created new asset classes, and why the next productivity revolution depends on measuring what we cannot yet see on a balance sheet.
By David Stroll & Ivan Gowan · 6 lessons · ~45 min total
The 250-Year Arc of Productivity Growth
Every era in this series follows the same pattern: a new set of General Purpose Technologies emerges, organisations redesign around them, and Total Factor Productivity accelerates. But each era also created a new class of assets that could be measured, owned, and monetised — expanding what appeared on the balance sheet. The pattern culminates today, where 92% of enterprise value is intangible but mostly invisible in financial statements.
| Era | Period | Key GPTs | TFP Rate | New Asset Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. The Pioneers | 1776–1825 | Cotton, steam, coal, canals | 0.4% | Patents & inventions |
| 2. Age of Steam | 1826–1875 | Railways, telegraphy, joint stock co. | 0.8% | Equity & capital markets |
| 3. Oil & Electricity | 1876–1925 | Oil, ICE, electricity, Ford, radio | 1.3% | Brands, IP & copyrights |
| 4. Golden Age | 1926–1975 | Aeroplanes, mass production, TV | 5.6% peak | Goodwill & going-concern value |
| 5. C3 Era | 1976–2025 | Microprocessor, internet, AI | 1.0% | Software & data (partially) |
| 6. Next 50 Years | 2025+ | AI, climate tech, institutions | ? | Full intangible assets |
The Lessons
Work through the series in order, or jump to any era that interests you. Each lesson takes 6–8 minutes to read and includes a 5-question quiz.
The Pioneers (1776–1825)
How Adam Smith, Arkwright, and the first General Purpose Technologies launched 250 years of productivity growth.
GPTs: Cotton, steam, coal, canals
Start Lesson 1 →Age of Steam (1826–1875)
Railways, telegraphy, and joint stock companies doubled TFP growth and created modern capital markets.
GPTs: Railways, telegraphy, joint stock companies
Start Lesson 2 →Oil & Electricity (1876–1925)
Oil, electricity, and Ford's assembly line drove TFP growth to 1.3% and laid foundations for the golden age.
GPTs: Oil, ICE, electricity, Ford, telephony, radio
Start Lesson 3 →Golden Age (1926–1975)
The peak decades of TFP growth — mass consumption, Solow's growth equation, and post-war prosperity.
GPTs: Aeroplanes, mass production, national brands
Start Lesson 4 →C3 Era (1976–2025)
A billion-fold improvement in computing, but TFP growth slowed. The IT productivity paradox and the rise of intangible assets.
GPTs: Microprocessor, internet, smartphones, LLMs
Start Lesson 5 →Five Challenges (Next 50 Years)
Increasing global TFP, distributing gains fairly, keeping humans in charge, solving climate, and defending democracy.
GPTs: AI, climate tech, institutional reform
Start Lesson 6 →The Balance Sheet Thread: 250 Years of Expanding What Can Be Owned
Every major productivity acceleration was preceded or accompanied by the formalisation of a new asset class. When we learned to measure and monetise something new, capital flowed toward it, and productivity accelerated. This series traces that pattern through six eras — culminating in the question that defines our own: how do you measure the 92% of enterprise value that sits in intangible assets?
Patents become tradeable assets
Intellectual property formalised
Joint stock equity as asset class
International brand/IP protection
Software becomes capitalisable
Intangible asset standard adopted
92% of value is intangible, mostly unmeasured
The Balance Sheet Inversion: 1975 to 2025
Ocean Tomo data shows how intangible assets grew from 17% to 92% of S&P 500 market value. Drag the slider to watch the inversion unfold.
TFP Growth by Era
Click any bar to jump to that lesson.
Your Productivity IQ Progress
Complete each lesson's quiz to build your score. Earn your badge at the end.
Do You Know Your Productivity History?
Each lesson includes a 5-question quiz. Complete all six and earn your Productivity IQ badge — from Productivity Apprentice to Productivity Master.
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